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數(shù)量分析學(xué)習(xí)技巧

Aim: Sample Population Estimation&Forecast

Statistics: Descriptive Statistics & Inferential Statistics

1, Descriptive Statistics

1.1, Central Tendency

Mode

Median

Mean: arithmetic mean, geometric mean, weighted mean

1.2, Dispersion & Relative Dispersion

Range

MAD(mean absolute deviation)

Variance--risk

1.3, Symmetry--skewness

1.4, Kurtosis

2, Inferential Statistics

2.0, Probability Concept--An excellent mathematic tool for Statistics

l Conditional, unconditional, joint probability, Addition Rule, Independent Events

l Probability Distribution & Probability Function

Binomial Distribution

Uniform Distribution

Normal Distribution

Lognormal Distribution

2.1 Estimation With Confidence --The development of descriptive statistics

z-statistic, t-statistic, -statistic

2.2 Hypothesis Testing

--A test of validity of financial assertion with the help of probability distribution

2.3 Forecasting

2.4 The Estimation & Forecast Between Variables

CFA level I focus on the estimation and forecast of linear regression

3, Extension in Finance

Case A, arithmetic mean, geometric mean

dilemma of return

100----200-----100 first year:100% second year:-50%

compute 1:

compute 2:

Case B, Normal Distribution vs. Lognormal Distribution

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